“It sipple out there, it slide out there” – Max Romeo
“Trade wars are good, and easy to win” – Trump
Here’s a thought, the US isn’t winning the trade war with China, and it isn’t going to.
“On the ground of intersecting highways, join hands with your allies” – Sun Tzu
— Pedro Nicolaci da Costa (@pdacosta) December 5, 2018
The Chinese people don’t have a lot of options when it comes to “eating grass”, what do you think American farmers would be doing if the government weren’t subsidizing them to the tune of over $28 billion?
My guess is that the US backs down with little to no progress on intellectual property and token agreements to sell agricultural products to China at an equal or lower level than before the trade war. Trump will declare victory of course but we will make an unchanged or slightly worse deal.
So what does that mean for the markets? Maybe people are starting to figure out the above, at best it creates unnecessary volatility and stress. It’s having an effect on growth worldwide, does that tip the US into a recession? It certainly doesn’t help.
I don’t disagree with confronting China on economic and other issues, but picking fights with your “allies” at the same time doesn’t seem smart to me. What do you think?